The latest Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll has delivered a real nail-biter as Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are now locked in a 50-50 battle for the White House. With less than two months until Election Day, this new poll is making waves, showing just how tight the race has become.
Released on September 9, the poll reveals Harris has caught up with Trump in voter support, yet Trump’s job approval remains higher at 52%. Meanwhile, Harris’ performance as Vice President is backed by 47% of voters.
It’s a tale of two campaigns, each with their strengths. Voters are split on who they trust more with different issues. Trump wins points for his handling of the economy, crime, and immigration, while Harris garners support for her stance on abortion, climate change, and racial equality.
Trump enjoys solid backing from male, rural, and white voters, while Harris leads among women, Black voters, and those living in urban areas. One particularly interesting twist in this dead-even race? A sizable chunk of independent voters remains undecided. Nearly 33% say they’re still mulling over who to back, signaling that this election could swing at the last moment.
In terms of Hispanic voters, Harris leads, but just barely. She holds 50% support compared to Trump’s 43%, and with 7% still undecided, this group could play a crucial role in the final outcome.
Approval Ratings and Big Issues
While Harris’ approval rating is holding steady, Trump edges her out with slightly higher numbers, particularly around his previous time in office. Trump is seen as better equipped to handle issues like the economy, relations with China, and crime prevention. Harris, on the other hand, strikes a chord with voters on topics such as racial equality, climate policy, and healthcare for immigrants.
The poll sheds light on some stark contrasts. For example, Trump is viewed as a firm ally of Israel and a defender of free speech on social media. Harris, meanwhile, is perceived as leaning towards more progressive policies like open borders and the move to electric vehicles.
This split between their policy approaches leaves voters at a crossroads, with many still trying to figure out which path they want the country to take.
Biden’s Popularity in Question
President Biden’s numbers remain relatively flat, with a 42% approval rating, a figure that hasn’t budged much in recent months. His strongest support comes from Black voters, with 66% giving him the thumbs up, but he struggles with Hispanic voters, where his approval sits at just 39%.
Voters are particularly unhappy with how Biden is handling foreign policy, including the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, which continues to draw criticism. On the domestic front, the economy remains a sore spot. A hefty 63% of voters say the U.S. economy is going in the wrong direction, and inflation is still top of mind for many. In fact, 42% now cite it as the most pressing issue, a jump from previous months.
Nearly half of voters say their personal financial situations have worsened over the past year, with rural, older, and female voters feeling the pinch the most.
Israel-Hamas and Venezuela: Polarizing Issues
The poll also delves into global issues, showing a clear divide on public sentiment. On the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, voters overwhelmingly support Israel, with 79% backing the country in its fight. The majority of voters believe a ceasefire should only happen once Hamas is removed from power and all hostages are released.
When it comes to the Venezuelan elections, however, many voters—especially younger ones—seem underinformed. Surprisingly, 38% don’t believe the election was stolen by President Nicolás Maduro, and nearly half of voters aged 18-24 actually support him. On the flip side, 57% of voters back U.S. sanctions on Venezuela due to alleged election fraud.
What’s Next?
With both Harris and Trump tied in the polls and a large percentage of independents still undecided, the 2024 presidential election is shaping up to be one for the history books. Key issues like the economy, immigration, and racial equality will likely determine the final outcome.
As we inch closer to Election Day, the political stage is set for what could be one of the most closely watched—and contested—races in modern U.S. history.